We've been flooded by judgements of all hues, with different levels of erudition (and as I type this I realise I have been part of the mob!), and inevitably these have been qualitative exercises. It might be a good idea then to see what the rankings are telling us because they are, in most cases, logically well-founded. Let's look at the two that most of us know of; the ICC Ranking and the Castrol Index.
Not surprisingly, the order in which teams are placed is identical. That is a good sign, suggestive of rigour but while the ICC rankings spread the teams out over a larger canvas, the Castrol Index is more closely bunched together.
On the ICC scale, Australia is at 131 to Pakistan's 100; on the Castrol Index, the numbers are 182 versus 168. Australia are still first but the ratio is vastly different. Indeed, at No.5 on the ICC rankings England (109) is way adrift but the Castrol Index puts it at 169, merely a nudge away from South Africa on 170.
I actually suspect that might be a better reflection of how things are likely to be on the sub-continent. Pakistan has mercurial hitters, finishers, bowlers who reverse the ball and enough spin bowling options. If any index could measure team spirit on the morning of a game, or read their mind, we could get a better idea of how they will play but they remain dangerous floaters and the Castrol Index captures that well.
Both the ICC rankings and the Castrol Index seed Australia, India, Sri Lanka and South Africa to finish in the top four. And on form and a qualitative assessment that is how it could well be, I worry just a bit for Sri Lanka's middle order batting and the tail, I fear too much depends on how the top order bats. That is why in spite of such a good top four I believe Samaraweera and Mathews could be critical.
India has problems with bowling in the early and end overs and if that does indeed happen, the Castrol Quick Start and Extreme Performance indicators should reflect that; which is why a fit Zaheer Khan is vital to India's chances and the fact that he had to be kept aside for the two warm up games doesn't augur well.
If the batsmen are in form though, they can cover up for most things and that is why Sachin and Sehwag must bat long. India look solid from the outside but unless the ball grips and turns, the batting momentum will have to compensate for the bowling efficiency!
